我国林业扶贫工作的主要问题及优化措施研究

林业扶贫是当前我国扶贫工作的重要内容。通过介绍开展林业扶贫工作的政策背景、理论背景以及经济背景,分析林业扶贫工作开展过程中存在的基础设施落后、针对性差等问题,提出了因地制宜,互联网+林业扶贫,鼓励社会资本进入扶贫工作、志智双扶等应对措施。     

Culture,financial crisis and the demand for property,accident and health insurance in the OECD countries

Culture has been known to play an important role in explaining differences in consumption behaviour across countries. Yet, we know very little how it affects spending on non-life insurance products. This paper attempts to shed some light on how cultural characteristics impact the demand for property, accident and health insurance, focusing on the OECD countries in the period 2000–2017. We find, via the system generalized method of moment estimations, that cultural characteristics such as individualism, long-term orientation, masculinity and uncertainty avoidance were the drivers of the expenditure on property insurance, whereas long-term orientation, uncertainty avoidance and hypometropia explained accident and health insurance spending across the OECD countries. In the presence of the global financial crisis, cultural effects on property insurance spending turned out to be relatively minor, with the exception of individualism. These findings provide valuable information for non-life insurance companies, consumers and policy makers in the OECD countries.     

Islamic and conventional portfolios optimization under investor sentiment states: Bayesian vs Markowitz portfolio analysis

This paper investigates the portfolio optimization under investor’s sentiment states of Hidden Markov model and over a different time horizon during the period 2004–2016. To compare the efficient portfolios of the Islamic and the conventional stock indexes, we have employed two approaches: the Bayesian and Markowitz mean-variance. Our findings reveal that the Bayesian efficient frontier of Islamic and conventional stock portfolios is affected by the investor’s sentiment state and the time horizon. Our findings also indicate that the investor’s sentiment regimes change the Islamic and the conventional optimal diversified portfolios.Moreover, the results show that the potential diversification benefits seem to be more important when using the Bayesian approach than when applying the Markowitz approach. This finding is valid for the bearish, depressed, bullish and calm states in Islamic stock markets. However, the diversification of potential portfolios is significant only for the bullish and the bubble states in the conventional financial markets.The findings of the study provided additional evidence for investors to exploit googling investor sentiment states to evaluate the portfolio performance and make an optimal portfolio allocation.     

Meanings of leisure for older people: an Australian study of line dancing

In Australia and in many parts of the world, older people participate in line dancing. Our phenomenological study explored whether attending a regular line dancing class might offer a group of older people opportunities for active and successful ageing. Our research investigated the meanings and practices fostered in a community line dancing class in Melbourne. We gathered data via an interview with the teacher of the group, observation of a class and two focus group interviews with 25 members. Data were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis that is reported thematically under headings of: Belief in the efficacy of line dancing, Physical and emotional benefits, YouTube clips as instructional reinforcement and promotion, and Socialising. The findings show that participation in the class offered older student’s opportunities for dance and music engagement, active and successful ageing, health and well-being, social connection and purposeful leisure. The teacher of the class modelled serious and successful leisure and advocates for dance as holistic training for older people. We position our participants on a continuum of leisure engagement that ranges from the casual to the serious. Further research is required to support arguments for the efficacy of dance as a leisure pursuit for older adults.     

A practical road map for assessing cyber risk

The increase in interconnectivity and developments in technology have caused cyber security to become a universal concern. This paper highlights the dangers of the evolution of cyber risk, the challenges of quantifying the impact of cyber-attacks and the feasibility of the traditional actuarial methodologies for quantifying cyber losses. In this paper, we present a practical roadmap for assessing cyber risk, a roadmap that emphasizes the importance of developing a company and culture-specific risk and resilience model. We develop a structure for a Bayesian network to model the financial loss as a function of the key drivers of risk and resilience. We use qualitative scorecard assessment to determine the level of cyber risk exposure and evaluate the effectiveness of resilience efforts in the organization. We highlight the importance of capitalizing on the knowledge of experts within the organization and discuss methods for aggregating multiple assessments. From an enterprise risk management perspective, impact on value should be the primary concern of managers. This paper uses a value-centric/reputational approach to risk management rather than a regulatory/capital-centric approach to risk.     

自然资源资产管理：理论逻辑与改革导向

研究目的:针对自然资源资产管理的理论诠释不清、改革导向不明、自然资源的资产属性尚未充分体现等问题,本文立足新时代党和国家机构改革背景,分析自然资源资产管理的理论逻辑,明确未来自然资源资产管理的改革方向。研究方法:文献研究法,综合分析法。研究结果:新时代自然资源资产管理应当基于"权利—价值—经营—管理"的理论逻辑体系框架,其中自然资源资产权利应当包含自然资源资产所有权、资格权、使用权和管理权等对象内涵,以完整、明晰和稳定作为权利实现要求;自然资源资产价值显化应当基于生态、经济等价值的全面认知,针对不同资产类型分类采用不同价值评估方法,完善市场培育、价值调节和公平分配机制;自然资源资产经营既要保障粮食安全、生态安全和规避可能风险,又要实现高品质利用,因而应当以底量保安全,以存量、数量、质量、差量和流量保协同,优化完善编制资产负债表;自然资源资产管理则应当打破自然资源资产管理割裂的现状,实现系统统一管理并建立全平台、全过程、全资源和全空间的综合监督机制。研究结论:自然资源资产管理应以"三维立体多权化"、"生态价值具象化"、"安全品质六量化"和"系统监管综合化"为改革导向,以期全面推进未来多维、绿色、高效、安全、品质、有序的自然资源资产管理方式的切实实现。     

Network ties and export propensity of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises

This paper investigates the impacts of different network ties on export propensity of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector. Using data from a survey of over 2,600 manufacturing SMEs in 2015, we found that social networks contribute positively to the export propensity of SMEs, while the size of business networks negatively associates with the likelihood of export. However, bank networks and political networks are not significant for the propensity to export of Vietnamese SMEs. We discuss the results in detail and offer recommendations for SME owners, managers and policy makers.     

Do capital flows drive credit growth and consumption in Central and Eastern Europe?

Domestic credit expansion in CEE economies, fuelled in part by foreign capital inflows, helped increase household welfare before the 2008 financial crisis caused a contraction across the region. How strong are the linkages between the current account, domestic credit and consumer spending? This study compiles a quarterly dataset of domestic credit as a share of GDP for 11 CEE European Union members and isolates structural breaks in the series’ growth rates that often align with the 2008 crisis. Vector autoregressive methods, particularly impulse response functions, show that increased current-account deficits lead to increased consumption in six of the 11 countries and increased credit growth in three, and that shocks to credit growth increase consumption in six countries. Capital inflows significantly increase consumption through domestic credit in Slovenia, while the Baltics show a large share of significant effects.     

Forecast of realized covariance matrix based on asymptotic distribution of the LU decomposition with an application for balancing minimum variance portfolio

We derive the asymptotic distribution for the LU decomposition, that is, the Cholesky decomposition, of realized covariance matrix. Distributional properties are combined with an existing generalized heterogeneous autoregressive (GHAR) method for forecasting realized covariance matrix, which will be referred to as a generalized HARQ (GHARQ) method. An out-of-sample forecast comparison of a real data set shows that the proposed GHARQ method outperforms other existing methods in terms of optimizing the variances of portfolios.